000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101552
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI DEC 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS FROM 09N84W TO 05N96W 
TO 09N115W TO 07N127W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 
NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 109W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 
NM N OF AXIS FROM 122W TO 130W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N131W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS TO THE SE TO 21N112W AND TO THE 
SW TO 27N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE 
AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE ITCZ ARE SUPPORTING FRESH TRADES 
FROM 08N TO 22N W OF 122W. THE FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST OVER 
THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WILL DECREASE IN AREAL 
EXTENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS NE. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL...WAVE PERIODS BETWEEN 14 TO 16 
SECONDS...WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 10 TO 13 FT WILL 
PROPAGATE SE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS W OF 110W IN 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 10 FT IN 
48 HOURS...BUT EXTEND FURTHER EAST REACHING NEAR 100W.  

GAP WINDS...
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE 
FORCE...AND WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN 24 HOURS. FRESH TO 
STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH 
THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
OVER THE GULFS OF FONSECA...PAPAGAYO...AND PANAMA. WINDS OVER 
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST...WHICH 
WILL LEAD TO WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT FOR THE GULF OF 
FONSECA IN 24 HOURS...THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IN 36 HOURS...AND THE 
GULF OF PANAMA IN 42 HOURS. 

LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WILL BE INDUCED BY A 
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE 
UPCOMING WEEKEND. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT 
WILL FUNNEL TROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
STARTING SUN NIGHT. ACCORDING TO THE COMPUTER MODELS...ANOTHER
GALE FORCE WIND EVENT COULD TAKE PLACE.

$$
AL