000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU DEC 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N77W TO 04N90W TO 07N110W TO 07N120W TO 10N140W TO 
08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W 
...FROM 07N TO 08N BETWEEN 109W AND 111W...AND FROM 08N AND 15N 
BETWEEN 123W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTEND ACROSS YUCATAN PENINSULA SW TO POORLY 
DEFINED CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR 07N110W.  TROUGH MAINTAINS VERY DRY 
AIR MASS OVER BASIN S OF 19N E OF 119W...EXCEPT MINOR MOISTURE 
ADVECTED FROM S HEMISPHERE OVER EXTREME SE CORNER S OF 08N E OF 
87W.  BROAD UPSTREAM RIDGE MEANDERS NE AS ANOTHER WEAK CUT OFF 
CYCLONIC VORTEX DEVELOPS NEAR 20N130W AND USHERS COLD FRONT 
ACROSS NW CORNER OF BASIN BEYOND FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...
WELL SUPPORTED STATIONARY HIGH PRES 1025 MB CENTERED AT 29N127W 
BEGIN NE DRIFT TONIGHT.  MOVE OUGHT TO WEAKEN PERSISTENT FRESH 
NE TRADES W OF 115W WITHIN NEXT TWO DAYS.  WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
ALONG 135W EXPECTED TO BE W OF ZONE BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  

DEEP LOW PRES WELL NW OF BASIN CAUSING LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS 
SPREADING SE INTO E PAC.  SWELLS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE 
FROM THE PRESENT 13-15 FT TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY LATE SAT.
 
HEALTHY HIGH PRES 1017 MB OVER GULF OF MEXICO FUNNELS DAMMED 
COLD AIR ACROSS ISTHMUS INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH STORM 
FORCE.  THEN HIGH PRES DRIFTS E INTO WESTERN ATLC GAP AND WIND  
ACROSS TEHUANTEPEC WEAKEN TO GALE TONIGHT AND BELOW GALE FORCE 
BY EARLY FRI.  AS HIGH PRES INVADES WRN ATLC AND NWRN CARIBBEAN 
...GRADIENT WITH LOW PRES OVER WRN COLOMBIA COAST...FORCE STRONG 
NE WINDS THROUGH GULFS OF FONSECA THEN PAPAGAYO WITHIN NEXT DAY 
EVENTUALLY REACHING GULF OF PANAMA. 

$$
WALLY BARNES