000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091536
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU DEC 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM AXIS 
07N77W TO 04N90W TO 07N110W TO 07N120W TO 10N140W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 07N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W...FROM 
07N TO 08N BETWEEN 109W AND 111W...AND FROM 08N AND 15N BETWEEN 
123W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 
29N127W...DRIFTING W. A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE 
HIGH PRES...FROM 16N132W TO 07N135W. AN AREA OF FRESH TRADES ARE 
IN THE TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE HIGH CENTER. 
EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO VERIFY NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 
17 FT PUSHING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SHIP 
AND ASCAT DATA ALSO INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS JUST 
OUTSIDE TO THE NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE HIGH PRES WILL 
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE 
SURFACE TROUGH MIGRATES WEST AND DAMPENS OUT. FRESH WINDS WILL 
FUNNEL BETWEEN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES AND THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA TODAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. 
THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE FRESH TRADES...AS THE NW 
SWELL PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. THE SWELL WILL DECAY TO 8 TO 11 FT 
IN 48 HOURS...BUT EXTEND TO A LINE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA 
TO 00N120W. 

E OF 110W...
WINDS AT IXTEPEC MEXICO ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC ARE NOW AT 35 KT. THE WINDS ARE STORM FORCE OVER THE 
ADJACENT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TODAY AS COLDER...DRIER AIR OFF THE 
SW GULF OF MEXICO FILTERS THROUGH THE GAP. THIS WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE TOMORROW 
MORNING AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SHIFT EAST. FURTHER SOUTH... 
MODERATE TO FRESH GAP FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT WATERS...DUE TO ENHANCED FLOW 
MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND MORNING OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE. STATIONARY LOW PRES OFF NE PANAMA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN 
WILL ENHANCE FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA 
AND SW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH 48 HOURS. 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND 
DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A 
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER 
GRADIENT AND BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. TOGETHER THESE WILL 
ALLOW FRESH GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA BY 
STARTING TONIGHT. 

$$
FORMOSA