000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091004
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU DEC 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM AXIS 
FROM 05N77W TO 05N97W TO 07N108W TO 07N120W TO 09N130W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 09N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 127W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA IS CENTERED NEAR 
29N123W...DRIFTING W. A 0630Z ASCAT PASS CAPTURED A PERSISTENT 
SURFACE TROUGH S OF THE HIGH PRES...FROM 08N TO 14N ALONG 131W. 
THE ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH A SHIP OBSERVATION ALSO DEPICT AN AREA 
OF FRESH TRADES IN THE TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 
THE HIGH PRES. EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO VERIFY NW SWELL 
WITH HEIGHTS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 15 FT PUSHING INTO THE NW 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SHIP AND ASCAT DATA ALSO 
INDICATE FRESH TO STRONG SW WINDS JUST OUTSIDE TO THE NW OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...TO THE SE OF A STALLED FRONT. THE HIGH PRES 
WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE 
SURFACE TROUGH MIGRATES WEST AND DAMPENS OUT. FRESH WINDS WILL 
FUNNEL BETWEEN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES AND THE 
NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA STARTING LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUE 
THROUGH SAT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO MAINTAIN THE FRESH 
TRADES...AS THE NW SWELL PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. THE SWELL WILL 
DECAY TO 8 TO 11 FT IN 48 HOURS...BUT EXTEND TO A LINE FROM THE 
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA TO 00N120W. 

E OF 110W...
WINDS AT IXTEPEC MEXICO ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC REACHED MINIMAL GALE FORCE AT 04Z. THE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STORM FORCE OVER THE ADJACENT GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC THIS MORNING AS COLDER...DRIER AIR OFF THE SW GULF 
OF MEXICO FILTERS THROUGH THE GAP. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
TONIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE AS HIGH PRES N OF 
THE AREA SHIFT EAST. FURTHER SOUTH...MODERATE TO FRESH GAP FLOW 
WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT 
WATERS...DUE TO ENHANCED FLOW MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND MORNING OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN AND NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE. STATIONARY LOW PRES OFF NE 
PANAMA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ENHANCE FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW 
THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AND SW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
COLOMBIA THROUGH 48 HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT AND FRI. THE FRONT 
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS...ALLOWING FOR A 
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT AND BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER 
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. TOGETHER 
THESE WILL ALLOW FRESH GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA 
BY STARTING TONIGHT. 

$$
CHRISTENSEN