000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090312
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU DEC 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 04N77W 
TO 07N105W TO 10N126W THEN RESUMES NEAR 09N131W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 
12N BETWEEN 125W AND 129W AND ALSO FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 128W 
AND 133W.

...DISCUSSION...

1023 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N127W WHERE IT WILL REMAIN 
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RIDGING COVERS THE 
WATERS N OF 20N W OF 115W. A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ 
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 18N127W TO 08N129W. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADES EXISTS ROUGHLY FROM 08N TO 20N W OF TROUGH ALONG WITH 20 
KT WINDS WITHIN 240 NM SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE TROUGH WILL 
REACH FROM NEAR 17N133W TO 09N136W BY 24 HOURS THEN WILL 
DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE W 
WATERS. AS THIS RIDGING STRENGTHENS THE AREA OF TRADES WILL 
SIGNIFICANTLY EXPAND BY 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE 20 KT NW TO N WINDS 
WILL COMMENCE AROUND 24 HOURS W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS.

LARGE NW SWELL WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 14 TO 16 SECONDS 
REMAINS OVER THE NW WATERS. SEAS ARE PEAKING AROUND 19 FT NEAR 
30N140W. THE NW SWELL WILL DECAY TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FT AS IT 
PROPAGATES SE REACHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST WATERS W OF 
100W BY 48 HOURS.

LINGERING 8 FT NE SWELL GENERATED BY A PREVIOUS GALE EVENT IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXISTS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 102W AND 
110W. THIS SWELL WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY W BY 24 HOURS THEN WILL 
SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY 36 HOURS.

20 KT NW TO N WINDS REMAIN IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 25N TO 
28N DUE TO TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND 1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO. THESE 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 12 UTC THU AS THE 
TROUGHING WEAKENS AND THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SE.

GAP WINDS...
ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS PUSHING S IN THE W GULF OF MEXICO 
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT HAS NOW SHIFTED FARTHER 
SE THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TO BE 
FUNNELED THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND DOWNWIND INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT LAND BASED STATION IXTEPEC 
IN OAXACA MEXICO HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KT DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS 
AND EXPECT THAT GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO SPILL INTO THE 
NORTHERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY TO 
STORM FORCE BY 06 UTC THU. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PERSIST 
THROUGHOUT THU DIMINISHING TO GALE FORCE BY 00 UTC FRI THEN 
QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 18 UTC FRI. SEAS WILL 
BUILD TO UP TO 19 FT DURING THE STORM FORCE CONDITIONS WITH NE 
SWELL GENERATED BY THIS EVENT PROPAGATING SW TOWARD THE EQUATOR 
BY 48 HOURS.

IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 
TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING 
HOURS DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW OFF OF CENTRAL AMERICA. 

IN THE GULF OF FONSECA...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT BY 06 UTC 
FRI AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO 
PUSHES SE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BE 
FUNNELED THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN MOUNTAIN PASSES.

IN THE GULF OF PANAMA...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED 15 TO 20 
KT WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION WHICH WERE WRAPPING AROUND 
A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 09N78W. LATEST 
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED ALTHOUGH 
EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY 06 UTC FRI WHILE SW 
FLOW ALSO INCREASES TO 20 KT W OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE 
FAR SE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SW FLOW WILL DIMINISH 
TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS. 

$$
LEWITSKY