000 AXPZ20 KNHC 082201 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC WED DEC 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 08N80W TO 05N94W TO 08N105W TO 10N126W THEN RESUMES NEAR 09N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 127W AND 133W. ...DISCUSSION... 1025 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 30N130W AND IT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. RIDGING COVERS THE WATERS N OF 20N W OF 110W. A SURFACE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM NEAR 17N125W TO 08N129W. AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES EXISTS ROUGHLY FROM 08N TO 21N W OF THE TROUGH AXIS DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING AND TROUGH ITSELF. THE TROUGH WILL REACH FROM NEAR 17N131W TO 08N135W BY 24 HOURS THEN WILL DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE W WATERS. AS THIS RIDGING STRENGTHENS THE AREA OF TRADES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY EXPAND BY 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE 20 KT NW TO N WINDS WILL COMMENCE AROUND 24 HOURS W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE NW SWELL WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 14 TO 15 SECONDS REMAINS OVER THE NW WATERS. SEAS ARE PEAKING AROUND 19 FT NEAR 30N140W. THE NW SWELL WILL DECAY TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 FT AS IT PROPAGATES SE REACHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST WATERS W OF 100W BY 48 HOURS. LINGERING 8 FT NE SWELL GENERATED BY EARLIER GALE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EXISTS FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 100W AND 110W. THIS SWELL WILL SHIFT W SLIGHTLY BY 24 HOURS THEN WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MORE PREVALENT NW SWELL BY 48 HOURS. 20 KT NW TO N WINDS REMAIN IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 24N TO 28N DUE TO TROUGHING ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND 1034 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 12 UTC THU AS THE TROUGHING WEAKENS AND THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS SE. GAP WINDS... ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR IS PUSHING S IN THE W GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT SE THIS EVENING ALLOWING FOR THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW TO BE FUNNELED THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND DOWNWIND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WILL COMMENCE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AROUND 00 UTC THIS EVENING THEN WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 30 TO 45 KT BY 03 UTC FURTHER ACCELERATING TO STORM FORCE BY 06 UTC. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGHOUT THU DIMINISHING TO GALE FORCE BY 06 UTC FRI AND THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY 18 UTC FRI. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 19 FT DURING THE STORM FORCE CONDITIONS WITH NE SWELL GENERATED BY THIS EVENT PROPAGATING SW TOWARD THE EQUATOR BY 48 HOURS. IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW OFF OF CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE GULF OF FONSECA...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT BY 06 UTC FRI AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO PUSHES SE THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BE FUNNELED THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN MOUNTAIN PASSES. IN THE GULF OF PANAMA...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED 15 TO 20 KT WINDS IN THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION WHICH ARE WRAPPING AROUND A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 09N78W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BY 00 UTC FRI WHILE SW FLOW ALSO INCREASES TO 20 KT W OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE SW FLOW WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY