000 AXPZ20 KNHC 081600 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED DEC 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 06N77W TO 05N92W TO 11N124W TO 09N128W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 126W AND 130W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS STALLED NW OF THE AREA WEST OF HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N126W. OBS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS SW OF THE FRONT. FRESH TRADES PERSIST S OF 17N W OF 120W AIDED IN PART BY A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 125W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS SLOWLY W REACHING 140W BY FRI. HIGH PRES WILL MOVES WSW AND STRENGTHENS TO AROUND 1027 MB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PRODUCING FRESH NW WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST AND STRONGER TRADES N OF THE ITCZ. LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 18 FT WILL SPREAD SW ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WHILE DECAYING TO 14 FT FRI. E OF 110W... THE MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE GAP WIND FLOW IN SEVERAL FAVORED LOCATIONS. STRONG HIGH PRES ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE VERY STRONG N WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE FRI AS RIDGING OVER THE SW GULF SHIFTS EAST. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS REACHING 50 KT THU MORNING...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A GALE WITH WINDS TO 45 KT FOR NOW. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 17-18 FT THU IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH FRESH NE SWELL UP TO 12 FT PUSHING SW IN AN AREA FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. FURTHER SOUTH... MODERATE TO FRESH GAP FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT WATERS...DUE TO ENHANCED FLOW MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND MORNING OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE. A STATIONARY LOW OFF NE PANAMA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ENHANCE FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AND SW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH 48 HOURS. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI WILL CREATE A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT AND BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...ALLOWING GAP WINDS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF FONSECA BY STARTING THU NIGHT. $$ MUNDELL