000 AXPZ20 KNHC 080904 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED DEC 08 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0900 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 06N77W TO 06N90W TO 09N125W TO 07N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... A FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST N OF THE AREA THROUGH 30N140N...TO THE WEST OF HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N125W. ASCAT DATA FROM 12 HOURS AGO SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MORE RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THIS FLOW HAS DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY AS DEEP LOW PRES OVER THE NE PACIFIC LIFTS OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...FRESH TRADES PERSIST MAINLY S OF 18N W OF 120W...AIDED IN PART BY A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ITCZ ALONG 123W. THE FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS W REACHING 140W BY FRI. THE SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL INCREASE IN STRENGTH TO 1025 MB BY 48 HOURS...ALLOWING FRESH NW WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE HIGH PRES. MEANWHILE...LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 19 FT AND PERIODS AROUND 15 SECONDS WILL MOVE SOUTH...DECAYING TO 14 FT BY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS BUT SPREADING NW SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 FT OVER AN AREA NW OF LINE FROM CENTRAL BAJA TO 05N140W. E OF 110W... THE MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE GAP WIND FLOW...PRIMARILY THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WHERE MODERATE N FLOW WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE LATE WED EVENING AS A NEW ROUND OF DENSE COLD AIR FUNNELS THROUGH THE ISTHMUS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY FRI AS RIDGING OVER THE SW GULF OF MEXICO SHIFTS EAST. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 17 FT BY EARLY THU IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...WITH FRESH NE SWELL UP TO 12 FT PUSHING SW TO THE AREA FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. SWELL TO 8 FT LINGER IN THIS SAME AREA FROM THE PREVIOUS TEHUANTEPEC EVENT. FURTHER SOUTH...MODERATE TO FRESH GAP FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ADJACENT WATERS...DUE TO ENHANCED FLOW MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND MORNING OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE. STATIONARY LOW PRES OFF NE PANAMA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL ENHANCE FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PANAMA AND SW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH 48 HOURS. LOOKING AHEAD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND DISSIPATE LATE THU AND FRI. THE FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT AND BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. TOGETHER THESE WILL ALLOW FRESH GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA BY STARTING THU NIGHT. GULF OF CALIFORNIA... 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS INDICATED BY AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN WITH TROUGHING IN PLACE ALONG THE E PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 12 UTC THU AS THE TROUGHING WEAKENS. $$ CHRISTENSEN