000 AXPZ20 KNHC 072200 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC TUE DEC 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2100 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 05N78W TO 07N100W TO 10N120W THEN RESUMES NEAR 08N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 127W AND ALSO WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE AXIS W OF 137W. ...DISCUSSION... 1026 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 31N124W WITH RIDGING OVER THE FORECAST WATERS N OF 17N W OF 110W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ EXTENDING FROM NEAR 14N118W TO 07N124W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 20 TO 25 KT WINDS WITHIN 240 NM NW OF THE TROUGH WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. 20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW EXISTS WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE TROUGH S OF 10N ALONG WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT. IN THE MEANTIME THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE W OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH NW TO N WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT AS A RESULT. A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED AS IT ATTEMPTED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA DUE TO BLOCKING FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH. FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW EXISTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT PER RECENT WINDSAT AND ASCAT PASSES. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY WED AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT DISSIPATES. THE HIGH CENTER WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA. LARGE NW SWELL WITH PEAK WAVE PERIODS OF 14 TO 15 SECONDS HAS OUTRUN THE FRONT WITH SEAS UP TO 16 FT NEAR 30N140W. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD REACHING 19 FT BY WED AFTERNOON. THE NW SWELL WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECAY TO 15 FT WHILE PROPAGATING FURTHER S AND SE REACHING THE EQUATOR BY THU AFTERNOON. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH TROUGHING IN PLACE ALONG THE E PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS INDICATED BY AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 12 UTC THU AS THE TROUGHING WEAKENS. GAP WINDS... A RECENT ASCAT PASS CAPTURED N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOWNWIND TO NEAR 11N102W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN THE SAME AREA GENERATED BY THESE WINDS AND EARLIER GALE FORCE CONDITIONS. A SHIP LOCATED NEAR 12.5N100.5W RECENTLY REPORTED 9 FT SEAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TO GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEGINNING AROUND 06 UTC THU AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR PUSHES DOWN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS. OTHER GAP WIND FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. FRESH WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF FONSECA ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PULSE TO 20 KT MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH OFFSHORE DOWNSLOPING WINDS OCCURRING IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL AMERICA MOUNTAIN RANGES. LOW PRES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DELIVERING 20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KT BY TOMORROW EVENING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ALSO INCREASING TO 20 KT W OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY 24 THROUGH 48 HOURS. $$ LEWITSKY