000 AXPZ20 KNHC 071542 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE DEC 07 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 06N78W TO 06N100N TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 120W AND 128W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 12N128W. ...DISCUSSION... A 1024 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N124W EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER FORECAST WATERS N OF 15N W OF 110W. WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES IS LOCATED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 09N120W WITH A TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 13N114W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES REMAINS TIGHT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 20 TO 25 KT TRADES N OF THE LOW/TROUGH TO AROUND 15N. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS VERIFIED THESE WIND SPEEDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...BLOCKING A COLD FRONT THAT HAS STALLED NEAR 30N140W. FRESH TO STRONG SW FLOW IS NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT PER SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 24 HOURS. LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS WITH HEIGHTS TO 15 FT AND PERIODS TO 13 SECONDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE ALREADY INVADING THE NW PART OF THE AREA. THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH RAISING SEAS TO AROUND 19 FT NEAR 30N140W BY WED MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 130W WILL DAMPEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING TRADES TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY E OF 130W S OF 20N. THE LOW PRES NEAR 09N120W WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH WED NEAR 120W...MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF 20 KT TRADES TO ITS NORTH. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WED...PRODUCING NW WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PARTICULARLY ON THU. 20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND FROM 26N TO 29N BY 24 HOURS THEN WILL DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. GAP WINDS... WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE AND CURRENTLY ARE IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE...AND WILL DIMINISH FURTHER WED. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AIR PUSHING DOWN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE TEHUANTEPEC GAP...WILL LIKELY INDUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES BY WED NIGHT. NE SWELL FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES IS PUSHING WESTWARD FROM ROUGHLY 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...AND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHER GAP WIND FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. FRESH WINDS NEAR THE GULF OF FONSECA ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW PRES OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL DELIVER 20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. $$ GR