000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071009
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE DEC 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM06N78W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N118W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW PRES. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 
127W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
A 1024 MB HIGH PRES AREA IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N123W. 
WEAK 1010 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 09N118W. A 
0530Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINED TIGHT 
ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 20 KT TRADES WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE LOW PRES. 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 17N130W TO 09N130W. THE SAME ASCAT 
PASS INDICATED 20 KT FLOW AT LEAST ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE 
TROUGH...CLOSER TO THE HIGH PRES. THE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN 
QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...BLOCKING A COLD 
FRONT THAT IS STALLED JUST TO THE NW OF THE FORECAST AREA. FRESH 
TO STRONG SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH 
THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT 
LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. AN EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATION CONFIRMED WW3 
INITIALIZATION SHOWING LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 15 
FT AND PERIODS TO 13 SECONDS. THE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 130W WILL 
DAMPEN OUT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING TRADES TO DIMINISH 
SLIGHTLY E OF 130W S OF 20N. THE LOW PRES NEAR 09N118W WILL OPEN 
UP INTO A TROUGH WED NEAR 125W...MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF 20 
KT TRADES TO ITS NORTH. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH 
THROUGH WED...ENHANCING NW TO N WINDS ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF 
BAJA BY THU.

E OF 110W...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE LATER TODAY...AND DIMINISH FURTHER 
WED. THE REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER 
AIR PUSHES DOWN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE TEHUANTEPEC 
GAP...INDUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES BY WED NIGHT. NE SWELL 
FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF TEHUANTEPEC GALES IS PUSHING 
WESTWARD FROM ROUGHLY 08N TO 12N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W...AND WILL 
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER GAP WIND FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PRIMARILY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS. SIMILARLY...THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL AID FRESH WINDS NEAR 
THE GULF OF FONSECA THIS MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...LOW PRES OVER 
NW COLOMBIA WILL DELIVER 20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE GULF OF 
PANAMA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW HAS COMMENCED IN THE 
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AS HIGH PRES BUILDS 
OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND TROUGHING ALONG THE E COAST OF THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA. THESE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT AND 
EXPAND FROM 25N TO 30N BY 24 HOURS THEN WILL DIMINISH BACK TO 20 
KT AND RETRACT FROM 26N TO 28N BY 48 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN