000
AXPZ20 KNHC 061530
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON DEC 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS FROM 06N77W TO 06N100W TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 08N112W TO 10N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 110W AND 
113W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 127W AND 
132W.


...DISCUSSION...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N120W TO 22N130W. A 1021 
MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 29N125W IS IN THE WAKE OF THE 
FRONT AND WILL SHIFT NE. THIS HIGH PRES WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY 
TUE N OF AREA AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE N 
CENTRAL PACIFIC. SW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AHEAD OF THE SECOND 
COLD FRONT ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...ASCAT DATA ARE SHOWING FRESH TRADES 
BETWEEN THE 1021 MB HIGH PRES AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING 20N125W TO 10N131W. THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE IN 
TANDEM WITH THE HIGH PRES ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 
20 KT ON TUE OVER AN AREA FROM 10N TO 22N W OF 122W. MEANWHILE A 
LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 08N112W 1009 MB WILL SHIFT W TO 
08N115W TUE...THEN OPEN UP INTO A WEAK TROUGH ALONG 120W WED. 
ASCAT PASSES CONTINUE TO SHOW WINDS TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE 
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW PRES DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE LOW ITSELF AND HIGH PRES TO THE N. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM NE SEMICIRCLE 
OF LOW CENTER...AIDED BY DIFFLUENT PATTERN FLOW ALOFT. 

20 KT FLOW WILL SET UP IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AFTER 24 HOURS 
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FT WILL CONTINUE TO 
PROPAGATE BEHIND THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH DECAYING 
TO 8 OR 9 FT TUE EVENING FROM 08N TO 22N W OF 120W. AT THE SAME 
TIME...A NEW ROUND OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL PUSH INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA GENERALLY N OF 25N W OF 132W WITH SEAS 8 TO 15 
FT BY TUE MORNING. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 9 TO 19 FT WED MORNING 
WITH HIGHEST SEAS NEAR 30N140W.  

GAP WINDS...
AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED 30 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. AT 1400 UTC...IXTEPEC IN THE STATE OF OAXACA MEXICO 
REPORTED N WINDS OF 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT VERIFYING THE 
EXISTENCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
THIS EVENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUE...ON THE HEELS OF A 
PUSH OF COLD AIR THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE FAR SW GULF OF 
MEXICO. FRESH SWELL OF HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT WILL PUSH BEYOND 
THE AREA OF WINDS...GENERALLY FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 
105W. 

FURTHER SOUTH...FRESH GAP WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO PULSE THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH 48 HOURS. NORTH WINDS WILL PUSH 
THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA INTO THE GULF OF PANAMA AFTER 24 
HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PANAMANIAN/COLOMBIAN LOW PRES. 

$$
GR