000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI DEC 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM 08N78W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 08N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N108W TO 11N118W TO 08N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 118W.

...DISCUSSION...

WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS NW PORTION OF AREA FROM 30N129W TO 
20N140W IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. DEEPENING 
LOW PRES DIVES S TO NEAR 34N131W AS A 1002 MB LOW SUN WITH 20 TO 
30 KT W-SW WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN 450 NM S OF THE LOW TO NEAR 26N.
SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW BUILD TO NEAR 18 FT BY SUN MORNING.

GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS 
ENTIRE BASIN WITH SEAS 7 FT OR LESS EXCEPTING THOSE GENERATED BY 
THE COLD FRONT AND THE LOW PRES IN NW PORTION THROUGH SUN NIGHT. 
1011 MB LOW PRES IN THE ITCZ NEAR 08N95W IS TRIGGERING SOME DEEP 
CONVECTION AND WINDS TO 20 KT BUT OTHERWISE THE CONVERGENCE ZONE 
REMAINS RELATIVELY QUIET.

GAP WINDS...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT WINDS IN GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BELOW
GALE FORCE. NO SCATTEROMETER PASS THIS MORNING TO CONFIRM THIS
BUT GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT AROUND 20 
TO 30 KT NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 20 KT BY 
SUN AFTERNOON. GAP WINDS OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH NE WINDS PULSING TO 20 KT AS 
HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE NORMALLY 
GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE 
ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

$$
MUNDELL