000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022200
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU DEC 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
211500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM 08N83W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 07N91W TO 12N115W TO 08N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N133W TO 24N140W WILL CONTINUE TO 
PUSH FURTHER ESE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AND WEAKEN HIGH PRES RIDGE SE 
OF THE FRONT. LOW EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
NEAR 30N131W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS MOVES NE AND INTENSIFIES...
ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD WHILE TRAILING EDGE OF 
THE FRONT BECOMES A SHEAR LINE S OF 22N. A STRONGER LOW DIVING S 
WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF NW SWELL TO 16 FT TO NW PORTION OF 
AREA IN ABOUT 60-72 HOURS. WEAKENING RIDGE WILL EASE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT OVER W CENTRAL PORTION OF AREA...WITH WINDS AND SEAS 
CONTINUING TO DIMINISH THROUGH 48 HOURS.

1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 07N91W EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
WHILE A TROUGH DEVELOPS FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 05N92W.
20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 9 FT CAN BE EXPECTED NW OF THE TROUGH 
WITH 20 KT SW WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT EXPECTED SE OF TROUGH AXIS.

GAP WINDS...
NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 
AS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO RELAXES...WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE FRI MORNING. RESIDUAL DRAINAGE 
FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY TO 30 KT AND SEAS WILL 
SUBSIDE TO 8 TO 10 FT. THE AREA OF N TO NE SWELL GENERATED FROM 
THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO REACH CLOSE TO THE EQUATOR FRI.

$$
MUNDELL