000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021534
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU DEC 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 06N90W TO 11N113W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1019 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 31N127W AND CONTINUES TO 
SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THE HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE TO 
20N110W AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SE...CLOSER TO THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE WEAKENING. 
IN RESPONSE TO THE SHIFTING HIGH...NE TO E TRADES ON THE SW 
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 
KT AS INDICATED ON AN EARLIER 02/0536 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM 09N TO 
17N W OF 125W AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE THURSDAY AS 
THE RIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER.

WEST OF THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED 
ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W WITH 
NORTHERLY 20 TO 30 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. AS THE UPPER LEVEL 
SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT GRADUALLY WEAKENS...THE FRONT IS FORECAST 
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT REACHES THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS 
EXTENDING FROM 32N124W TO 24N130W BY EARLY SATURDAY. SEAS OF 8 
TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERLY WINDS. 
THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL RE-INTRODUCE ANOTHER BATCH OF 
STRONG W TO NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER THE NW PORTION OF 
THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA...SW MONSOONAL FLOW TO 20 KT 
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY S OF WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA 
WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ANALYZED AS A 1011 
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 06N90W...IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AND IS 
EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW AND 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING WILL ENHANCE NE TO E FLOW THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND INCREASE WINDS TO 20 KT BOTH NW AND SE 
OF THE MONSOONAL TROUGHING WHICH WILL LINGER FROM NEAR 08N87W TO 
04N92W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N115W TO 13N110W AND CONTINUES 
TO EXHIBIT BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW N OF 10N BETWEEN 109W 
TO 116W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHERN 
TIP OF THE TROUGH FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 109W AND 113W.

GAP WINDS...
STRONG NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO RELAXES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY 03/1200 UTC. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY TO 30 KT AS 
SEAS CURRENTLY WITHIN A RANGE OF 11 TO 16 FT...WILL SUBSIDE TO A 
RANGE OF 8 TO 10 FT. THE AREA OF N TO NE SWELL GENERATED FROM 
THIS EVENT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EQUATOR BY EARLY FRIDAY.

$$
HUFFMAN