000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020927
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU DEC 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 09N83W 
TO 07N90W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N111W TO 08N130W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
THE AXIS E OF 86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE AXIS W OF 120W.

...DISCUSSION...

1022 MB HIGH PRES HAS SETTLED SOUTH INTO THE AREA NEAR 30N128W 
AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE CLOSER TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE WEAKENING. A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR 20N110W. MEANWHILE A TROUGH ALONG 
THE E COAST OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS WEAKENED AND NW TO N 
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OVER THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 0536 UTC ASCAT PASS 
INDICATED 15 TO 20 KT TRADES FROM 10N TO 16N W OF 125W SW OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS AND N OF LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THESE 
TRADES WILL DIMINISH BY 06 UTC FRI AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.

A COLD FRONT IS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 30N135W TO 
27N140W. THE ASCAT PASS CAPTURED N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT BEHIND 
THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 30N131W TO 23N136W 
WITH A TRAILING SHEAR AXIS TO 20N140W BY 06 UTC FRI THEN FROM 
NEAR 30N126W TO 22N132W WITH THE SHEAR AXIS TO 15N140W BY 06 UTC 
SAT. SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL WILL ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERLY 
WINDS.

IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA...SW MONSOONAL FLOW TO 20 KT 
WILL PERSIST TODAY S OF WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA WITH SEAS 
TO 8 FT. A TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM NEAR 10N86W TO 
07N90W. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS TROUGH LATER 
TODAY WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS LOW WILL ENHANCE 
NE TO E FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND INCREASE WINDS TO 
20 KT BOTH NW AND SE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WHICH WILL LINGER 
FROM NEAR 08N83W TO 07N90W DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A WEAK 1011 MB AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 11N111W. 
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS 
WITH THE LOW BECOMING LESS DEFINED AS SW FLOW ALOFT INCREASES 
AND SHEARS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. EXPECT WHAT IS LEFT OF THIS LOW 
TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.

GAP WINDS...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO POUR THROUGH THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH HAS NOW SHIFTED E TO ALONG 
THE GUATEMALA HONDURAS BORDER. ENHANCED EXPERIMENTAL COASTAL 
WIND VECTORS FROM A 0354 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED A LARGE AREA 
OF 40 KT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS WHILE WINDS AT 
LAND BASED STATION IXTEPEC OAXACA MEXICO REPORTED SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 40 KT GUSTS 50 KT FOR NUMEROUS HOURS. A SHIP LOCATED 
WELL DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 12N97W REPORTED 28 
KT NE WINDS AND 10 FT SEAS AT 06 UTC. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH 
TO LESS THAN STORM FORCE BY 12 UTC THIS MORNING AND THEN TO LESS 
THAN GALE FORCE BY 12 UTC FRI WITH 20 TO 30 KT FLOW PERSISTING 
THROUGH AT LEAST 06 UTC SAT. 

$$
LEWITSKY