000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012155
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED DEC 1 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM 09N83W TO 
07N95W TO LOW PRES NEAR 11N109W TO 10N121W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

1028 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 28N132W WILL WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT 
APPROACHES NW PORTION OF DISCUSSION AREA. FRESH TO STRONG NW 
WINDS IN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN 
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT. 
AREA OF FRESH TRADES FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 114W WILL BE 15-20 KT 
BY THU MORNING WITH MAX SEAS TO 8 FT AS APPROACHING COLD FRONT 
WEAKENS HIGH PRES RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE 20-30 
KT WITH N TO NW SWELL TO 13 FT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

SW MONSOON FLOW WILL INCREASE S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AS LOW 
PRES LINGERS N OF PANAMA IN SW CARIBBEAN SEA. 20-25 KT WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON EITHER SIDE OF A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING 
SW FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO NEAR 05N90W. 

GAP WINDS...
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO FUNNELING STORM FORCE WINDS
INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. VIS SAT IMAGERY INDICATES INITIAL 
BURST OF COOL DRY AIR HAS PUSHED S OF 10N BETWEEN 93W AND 98W. 
IXTEPEC ON THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST OF MEXICO HAS BEEN REPORTING 40 
KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT CONTINUOUSLY SINCE 14Z.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE WITHIN THE NEXT 18 HOURS 
WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 36 HOURS.

$$
MUNDELL