000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED DEC 1 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS W FROM AXIS 09N84W TO 07N91W TO LOW PRES NEAR 
11N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N119W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 10N119W.

...DISCUSSION...
1028 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N125W WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO NEAR 27N140W. LOW PRES TROUGH OVER THE 
SIERRA MADRE IN NW MEXICO IS CREATING AN AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. MODEL DATA INDICATES 
A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEED OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 24 HRS AS 
SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE REGION WEAKENS. FRESH TRADES ARE 
INDICATED S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ROUGHLY FROM 22N TO 28N W OF 110W. 
FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN DIMINISH BY LATE 
WED AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD 
FRONT THAT ENTERS NW PORTION OF THE AREA. EXPECT N WINDS 20-25 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT BEHIND FRONT.

TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ARE NEAR 11N110W 
AND 10N119W. PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE LOW
NEAR 10N119W WHILE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS EVIDENT FROM THE LOW NEAR
11N110W. IN THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA...SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL 
INCREASE S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS N 
OF PANAMA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

GAP WINDS...
SAT IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN 
GULF OF MEXICO AND A GUST FRONT OF STRONG N WINDS SURGING THROUGH
THE CHIVELA PASS DOWNWIND THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEHIND 
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ABOVE GALE FORCE TONIGHT 
AND SHOULD REACH STORM FORCE WITHIN 12 HRS. BUILDING SEAS TO 20 
FT CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THU 
EVENING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT TONIGHT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS 
NIGHTTIME DRAINAGE FLOW OFF CENTRAL AMERICA INCREASES. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15-20 KT DURING THE DAY AND 20-25 KT AT NIGHT 
AS FUNNELING OF FRESH WINDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE E 
PACIFIC PERSISTS THROUGH THU.

$$
MUNDELL