000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302201
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE NOV 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS W FROM 08N83W TO 07N88W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N108W TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 10N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 122W.

...DISCUSSION...
1030 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N122W WITH A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO NEAR 27N140W. LOW PRES TROUGH OVER THE 
SIERRA MADRE IN NW MEXICO IS CREATING AN AREA STRONG TO NEAR 
GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SEVERAL SHIP OBS 
OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS HAVE INDICATED WINDS WERE 35-45 KT IN 
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SCATTEROMETER DATA IS LACKING 
IN THE AREA...AND MODEL DATA INDICATES A DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND 
SPEED OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...SO MAINTAINED 25-30 KT WINDS 
AND SEAS TO 12 FT BUT MAY AMEND FORECAST IF ANOTHER SHIP OB SHOWS
THIS IS STILL TOO LOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS 
THAN 20 KT IN ABOUT 36 HRS AS SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE REGION 
WEAKENS. FRESH TRADES ARE INDICATED S OF THE RIDGE AXIS ROUGHLY 
FROM 22N TO 28N W OF 110W. FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST THROUGH 24 
HOURS THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE WED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT 
WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS NW PORTION 
OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 24 HRS. EXPECT N WINDS 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO 12 FT BEHIND FRONT.

TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ ARE NEAR 10N108W 
AND 10N120W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOWS LACK SIGNIFICANT
ORGANIZATION. IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA...SW MONSOONAL 
FLOW WILL INCREASE S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AS LOW PRESSURE 
DEVELOPS N OF PANAMA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN.

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO  
WILL INDUCE STRONG N WINDS SURGING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS AND 
DOWNWIND THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS 
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE TONIGHT THEN ARE EXPECTED TO 
REACH STORM FORCE BY WITHIN 12-18 HRS. BUILDING SEAS TO 20 FT CAN
BE EXPECTED AS WELL. WINDS DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THU EVENING.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT IN 6-12 HOURS IN THE GULF
OF PAPAGAYO AS NIGHTTIME DRAINAGE FLOW OFF CENTRAL AMERICA 
INCREASES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15-20 KT DURING THE DAY 
AND 20-25 KT AT NIGHT AS FUNNELING OF FRESH WINDS FROM THE SW 
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE E PACIFIC PERSISTS THROUGH THU.

$$
MUNDELL