000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300925
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE NOV 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM 10N85W 
TO 07N97W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N108W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N117W TO 
08N130W TO 07N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 106W AND 113W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 129W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

1030 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 35N125W 
DRIFTING S WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION 
WATERS NEAR 32N124W CONTINUING SE THROUGH 22N115W TO 17N108W. 
MEANWHILE 1041 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN NEVADA WITH 
TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER NW MEXICO. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN IS 
RESULTING IN AN AREA OF NE TO E WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT FROM 23N TO 
28N E OF 130W TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AS RECENTLY 
CAPTURED BY AN ASCAT PASS. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED A BROAD 
AREA OF FRESH TRADES ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE GENERALLY 
FROM 09N TO 23N W OF 115W WITH RESULTANT SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT 
COMMINGLING WITH NW SWELL. THESE FRESH TRADES WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN WILL DIMINISH LATE WED AND THU AS THE PRES 
GRADIENT WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA. EXPECT N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WITH 8 TO 11 
FT NW SWELL ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT. IN ADDITION SW WINDS WILL 
INCREASE TO 20 KT N OF 29N AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

TWO AREA OF LOW PRES REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. A 1011 MB LOW 
IS POSITIONED NEAR 10N108W AND IS DRIFTING W. CONVECTION HAS 
INCREASED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND IS AS DESCRIBED IN 
THE ITCZ SECTION ABOVE. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT W 
THROUGH 24 HOURS THEN WILL DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS. 
ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N117W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED. THIS LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 24 
HOURS.

IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT WILL 
PERSIST TODAY SPILLING OUT SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA N OF 20N. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE PROJECTED SEAS 
TO 8 FT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ALTHOUGH RECENT SHIP 
OBSERVATIONS REPORTED SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT IN THE AREA OF 
STRONGEST WINDS. A LOCAL RESEARCH TOOL EARLIER PROGGED A 25 TO 
50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS 
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST DIAGNOSIS HAS DROPPED TO A NEAR 0 PERCENT 
PROBABILITY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY 06 UTC 
THU AS TROUGHING OVER THE REGION FINALLY DISSIPATES.

IN THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA...SW MONSOONAL FLOW WILL 
INCREASE S OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AS LOW PRES FURTHER DEVELOPS 
N OF THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA IN THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. 20 KT FLOW 
WILL FEED INTO THE CARIBBEAN LOW BEGINNING AROUND 00 UTC WED 
THEN WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 06 UTC THU.

GAP WINDS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ENTERING THE W GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL 
MOVE INTO THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF LATER TODAY. STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE THROUGH THE CHIVELAS PASS AND 
DOWNWIND THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BY 06 UTC WED 
THEN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE REACHING STORM FORCE BY 12 UTC 
WED. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 20 FT AS A RESULT OF THE STORM FORCE 
WINDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BACK TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY LATE 
FRI.

A RECENT ASCAT PASS CAPTURED NE TO E WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT IN THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO ALTHOUGH EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 
KT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE CENTRAL 
AMERICA COAST INCREASES. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 TO 
20 KT EVEN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS FUNNELING OF FRESH WINDS 
FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE E PAC INCREASES EVENTUALLY 
BECOMING 20 TO 25 KT AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE BY 06 UTC THU.

OF NOTE: NOVEMBER 30 MARKS THE END OF THE 2010 TROPICAL SEASON 
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SEVEN TROPICAL STORMS FORMED DURING THE 
SEASON WITH THREE OF THEM REACHING HURRICANE STATUS.

$$
LEWITSKY