000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE NOV 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 09N84W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N110W TO SECOND LOW PRES NEAR 10N116W TO 
09N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 105W AND 113W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED WITHIN 70 NM N OF AXIS FROM 130W TO 
132W.

...DISCUSSION...

1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 35N126W...DRIFTING 
SOUTH. A MUCH STRONGER HIGH PRES IS OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THIS 
WEATHER PATTERN IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT N 
OF 23N E OF 125W TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AS NOTED BY 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS. IN ADDITION... 
SURFACE DATA ALONG WITH ASCAT AND WINDSAT DATA OVER THE PASS 
SEVERAL HOURS ALSO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADE WINDS ON THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES GENERALLY N OF 11N W OF 
115W. THIS FLOW IS ALLOWING SEAS TO BUILD TO AROUND 10 FT. THE 
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE...THEN BEGIN TO 
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY N OF 25N AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS DUE TO THE 
PROXIMITY OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE 
FAR NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY N 
WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT AND ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW SWELL. 

TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. A 1011 MB LOW 
IS POSITIONED NEAR 10N110W AND IS DRIFTING W. ANOTHER 1011 MB 
LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 10N116W AND IS ALSO DRIFTING W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 220 
NM TO THE E AND NW OF THE EASTERNMOST LOW PRES...BUT OTHERWISE 
THERE IS LITTLE IMPACT WITH EITHER SYSTEM. 

WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASE THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LA 
PAZ AND LORETO IN SOUTHERN BAJA ARE REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 
20 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30 KT. TO THE NORTH...SURFACE DATA INDICATE 
WINDS OF 25 KT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTH REACHING 20N 
AND E OF 109W LATE TONIGHT. NOAA WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE 
INDICATES THAT SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO 9 OR 10 FT ACROSS THE 
GULF ON TUE.   

GAP WINDS...
ALL THE ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON THE NEXT GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT FORECAST TO BE A STRONGER ONE. THIS EVENT 
WILL START LATE TUE AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES THROUGH 
THE ISTHMUS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...DELIVERING POSSIBLY 
STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATE TUE NIGHT INTO 
EARLY WED MORNING. A STORM WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED. SEAS ARE 
LIKELY TO BUILD TO NEAR 20 FT ON WED DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHERLY 
WINDS.

WINDS OF 20 KT CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS FRESH TRADE 
WINDS FLOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FUNNELS THROUGH THE GAP. THE 
WINDS ARE GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS 
WITH THE AID OF THE NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

FURTHER SOUTH...COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A BROAD LOW 
PRES AREA OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. IN FACT...A BROAD AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT. 
THIS DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. DUE 
TO THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE...COMPUTER MODELS SHOW SW FLOW S 
OF PANAMA AND W OF COLOMBIA INCREASING TO 20 KT BY TUE. ALL 
MODELS SHOW LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE PACIFIC SIDE OF COSTA 
RICA BY WED...WITH ENHANCED SW FLOW N OF 04N AND E OF 90W...AND 
20 KT GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

OF NOTE: NOVEMBER 30 MARKS THE END OF THE TROPICAL SEASON IN THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. DURING THIS TROPICAL SEASON SEVEN 
TROPICAL STORM FORMED AND ONLY THREE OF THEM REACHED HURRICANE 
STATUS. THERE WAS ALSO FIVE TROPICAL DEPRESSIONS. AGATHA WAS THE 
THE FIRST SYSTEM OF THE SEASON. IT WAS A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL 
CYCLONE THAT MADE LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA. 
HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM WERE RESPONSIBLE FOR 177 
DEATHS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E AFFECTED 
SE MEXICO WHILE TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE MADE LANDFALL IN 
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A TROPICAL STORM. IT THEN EMERGED 
INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND MADE LANDFALL AGAIN ALONG THE 
MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...PRODUCING 
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IN THE STATES OF SONORA AND SINALOA. 
GEORGETTE WHICH FORMED AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER WAS THE LAST 
TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE SEASON. THE 2010 EASTERN PACIFIC 
HURRICANE SEASON WAS THE MOST INACTIVE IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER OF 
TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES SINCE THE SATELLITE ERA BEGAN.   

$$
GR