000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON NOV 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 08N83W 
TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N110W TO SECOND LOW PRES NEAR 10N116W TO 
10N125W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N TO 
14N BETWEEN 107W AND 117W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED NEAR 
10N122W AND NEAR 08N132W. 

...DISCUSSION...

1030 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 35N126W...MOVING NE 
TOWARD THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRES OVER MEXICO IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 
N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 23N E OF 125W TO THE COAST OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...AS NOTED BY SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND A RECENT ASCAT 
PASS. IN ADDITION...SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH ASCAT AND 
WINDSAT DATA OVER THE PASS SEVERAL HOURS ALSO SHOW A BROAD AREA 
OF FRESH TRADE WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES 
GENERALLY N OF 11N W OF 115W. THESE WINDS ARE RAISING SEAS TO 
AROUND 10 FT. 

FURTHER SOUTH...A WEAK 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE 
ITCZ AT 10N110W DRIFTING W. A SECOND WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS 
CENTERED NEAR 10116W AND WILL DISSIPATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS SOME MODEST CONVECTION NEAR THESE LOWS...BUT OTHERWISE 
THERE IS LITTLE IMPACT WITH EITHER SYSTEM. FURTHER WEST...A 
SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS FROM 13N125W TO 11N128W. GLOBAL MODELS 
SHOW THIS TROUGH PERSISTING THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT WEAKENING AS 
IT DRIFTS W. FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FRESH TO STRONG N FLOW WILL 
PERSIST ALONG THE BAJA COAST THEN DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE HIGH 
PRES BUILDS E. THE 8 TO 12 FT N SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 
8 FT OFF BAJA TUE INTO WED.  SIMILARLY THE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW 
N OF 11N W OF 115W WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE...THEN BEGIN TO 
DIMINISH ESPECIALLY N OF 25N AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THIS GULF AS HIGH PRES 
BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES NW WINDS 
TO 30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL 
DIMINISH WED AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E.

GAP WINDS...
ASIDE FROM SOME 15 TO 20 KT EARLY MORNING GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BUOY...SHIP...AND ASCAT DATA SHOW LIGHT 
WINDS PREVAILING INTO TUE. THE TRANQUILITY WILL BE INTERRUPTED 
IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY STARTING LATE TUE AS STRONG COLD 
AIR ADVECTION PUSHES THROUGH THE ISTHMUS FROM THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO...DELIVERING POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC LATE TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING. A STORM 
WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED.

FURTHER SOUTH...COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A BROAD LOW 
PRES AREA OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE MODEL SHOWING SW FLOW S OF PANAMA AND W OF COLOMBIA 
INCREASING TO 20 KT BY TUE. ALL MODELS SHOW LOW PRES DEVELOPING 
OFF THE PACIFIC SIDE OF COSTA RICA BY WED...WITH ENHANCED SW 
FLOW N OF 04N AND E OF 90W...AND 20 KT GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULF 
OF PAPAGAYO.

$$
GR/EC