000 AXPZ20 KNHC 291544 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON NOV 29 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1500 UTC. ...ITCZ... INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N110W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N116W TO 09N125W 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 123W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 132W AND 135W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 28N135W...MOVING EAST TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE COAST IS ALLOWING 20 TO 25 KT KT N FLOW...AS NOTED BY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THESE WINDS FOLLOWED A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED DOWN THE BAJA COAST AND NW MEXICO...AND DISSIPATED LATE YESTERDAY. SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH ASCAT AND WINDSAT DATA OVER THE PASS SEVERAL HOURS ALSO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TRADES S OF THE HIGH PRES GENERALLY N OF 11N W OF 115W. SHIP REPORTS AND JASON ALTIMETER DATA ALSO SHOWED 8 TO 10 FT SEAS...LIKELY NW SWELL. WAVEWATCH INITIALIZES WITH UP TO 12 FT IN THIS SAME AREA W OF NORTHERN BAJA. FURTHER SOUTH...A WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE ITCZ AT 10N110W DRIFTING W. A SECOND WEAK 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N114W AND WILL DISSIPATE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MODEST CONVECTION NEAR THESE LOWS...BUT OTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE IMPACT WITH EITHER SYSTEM. FURTHER WEST...A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS FROM 13N126W TO 09N130W. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH PERSISTING THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT WEAKENING AS IT DRIFTS W. FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FRESH TO STRONG N FLOW WILL PERSIST ALONG THE BAJA COAST THEN DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRES BUILDS E. THE 8 TO 12 FT N SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT OFF BAJA TUE INTO WED. SIMILARLY THE FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW N OF 11N W OF 115W WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE...THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH ESPECIALLY N OF 25N AS HIGH PRES BUILDS E. E OF 110W... ASIDE FROM SOME 15 TO 20 KT EARLY MORNING GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...BUOY...SHIP...AND ASCAT DATA SHOW LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING INTO TUE. THE TRANQUILITY WILL BE INTERRUPTED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY STARTING LATE TUE AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES THROUGH THE ISTHMUS FROM THE SW GULF OF MEXICO...DELIVERING GALE AND POSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY EARLY WED MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET CONTINUE TO DEPICT A BROAD LOW PRES AREA OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL SHOWING SW FLOW S OF PANAMA AND W OF COLOMBIA INCREASING TO 20 KT BY LATE TUE. ALL MODELS SHOW LOW PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE PACIFIC SIDE OF COSTA RICA BY WED...WITH ENHANCED SW FLOW N OF 04N AND E OF 90W...AND 20 KT GAP FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. GULF OF CALIFORNIA... WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. NW WINDS TO 30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT S OF 28N ARE PLAUSIBLE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH WED AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS E. $$ CHRISTENSEN