000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N78W TO 06N87W TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 10N102W TO 10N121W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 97W 
AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 131W AND 140W.

...DISCUSSION...

SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE A MAJORITY OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS 
ANALYZED FROM NEAR 30N120W TO 28N130W OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF 
THE FORECAST WATERS. A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADE WINDS IS NOTED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE 
PER EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASSES FROM WINDSAT AND ASCAT. THESE 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST MAINLY FROM 10N TO 25N W OF 120W 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION 
FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE ADVANCING WEAK COLD FRONT. THE 
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST...GRADUALLY DISSIPATING IN 
THE PROCESS AND EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA NEAR 30N115W TO 
28N126W BY 28/1200 UTC SUNDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE FORECAST 
WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY. 20 TO 25 KT NW TO N WINDS AND A NEW BATCH 
OF NW SWELL WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT WILL FOLLOW 
THE FRONT DOWN THE BAJA COAST SUNDAY. FURTHER SOUTH...A WEAK 
1011 MB LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 10N102W. WEST 
OF THE LOW CENTER...A COUPLE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS EXTEND 
ALONG 112W AND 121W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
BETWEEN THE TWO BOUNDARIES FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 114W AND 
119W.   

WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...NW 
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD THEIR INFLUENCE SOUTHWARD AND 
INCREASE OVER THE GULF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS 
GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 8 FT BY EARLY TUESDAY. 

GAP WINDS...
WINDS REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION 
AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO BELOW 20 KT BY EARLY 
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO RAPIDLY SHIFTS 
EASTWARD...AND WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO 
IMPACT THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY AND DELIVER 
ANOTHER ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... 
POSSIBLY APPROACHING STORM STRENGTH WEDNESDAY.

GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL PULSE TO 20 KT IN 
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW AND SOME ADDED ENHANCEMENT FROM EASTERLY PRESSURE 
GRADIENT FLOW LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.

$$
HUFFMAN