000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280315
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS 08N78W TO 06N90W TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 09N101W TO 10N118W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR 10N98W AND NEAR 11N104W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N W OF 135W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ROUGHLY THE AREA N OF 15N 
W OF 110W WHILE A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE FAR N PORTION OF 
THE FORECAST WATERS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED ON 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE PER AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. 
THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST MAINLY N OF 10N W OF 120W THROUGH EARLY 
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH IN 
THE WAKE OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH 
AND EXTEND FROM NORTHERN BAJA TO 27N125W TO 30N140W BY 12Z 
SUN...THEN WILL DISSIPATE OVER FORECAST WATERS BY SUN EVENING. 
NW TO N WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE AND A NEW BATCH OF NW 
SWELL...RAISING SEAS TO AROUND 12 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT DOWN 
THE BAJA COAST SUN. FURTHER SOUTH...A WEAK LOW PRES REMAINS 
WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N101W. TO THE WEST OF LOW CENTER...THERE 
ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS EXTENDING ALONG 111W AND 120W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF 
THE TROUGHS.   

WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
TONIGHT BUT WILL INCREASE AGAIN THROUGH SUN AS A COLD FRONT 
MOVES ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE GULF. 

GAP WINDS...
WINDS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. SURFACE DATA ALONG WITH THE NWP MODELS CURRENTLY 
SUGGEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT ACROSS THIS AREA. IN ADDITION... 
IXTEPEC IN OAXACA MEXICO IS ONLY REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 
KT FROM THE N. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS THAN 20 KT SUN 
EVENING AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA RAPIDLY SHIFTS EAST...AND 
WINDS VEER TO THE S ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. 

GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO WILL PULSE TO 20 KT IN 
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW AND SOME ADDED ENHANCEMENT FROM EASTERLY GRADIENT 
FLOW FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN. 

LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE 
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDWEEK...AND WILL DELIVER ANOTHER 
ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...POSSIBLY 
APPROACHING STORM STRENGTH WED.

$$
GR