000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270958
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT NOV 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 09N82W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 09N98W TO A SECOND LOW PRES NEAR 10N108W TO 09N125W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
OF LOW CENTERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR 10N111W AND 
NEAR 09N117W.  

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A RECENT 0540 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF 
20 TO 25 KT TRADE WINDS MAINLY S OF 25N AND W OF 120W ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1027 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED 
NEAR 30N139W AND A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ALONG 142W. THESE WINDS 
ARE PRODUCING SEAS UP TO 14 FT. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 0400 UTC 
ALSO SHOWED NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT INSIDE THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...OCCURRING ON THE EASTERN END OF THIS HIGH PRES 
RIDGE. THE HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS A COLD 
FRONT PUSHES S INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WINDS INSIDE 
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO WEAKEN IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE COLD 
FRONT WILL SHIFT SE INTO NORTHERN BAJA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN 
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A NEW ROUND OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE 
WATERS OFF BAJA SUN AND MON...WITH 8 TO 12 FT SEAS IN N SWELL. 
HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO 
STRONG TRADES S OF 25N W OF 120W INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT 
SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN N AND NE SWELL TO PERSIST. 

FURTHER WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS PARKED W OF AREA 
NEAR 145W. STRONG LLVL FORCING INDUCE BY THIS BROAD SWATH OF 
FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE ITCZ N AND NW TO THIS TROUGH...WHICH IS 
MAINTAINING DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY S OF 20N AND W OF 
120W. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY W AND 
NW...IN SYNC WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH. 

E OF 110W...A 1009 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ AT 109W. 
FURTHER EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 09N98W 
ANALYZED 1009 MB ON THE 06Z SURFACE MAP. WINDS OF 20 KT ARE 
NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE LOW CENTER...AND WILL GRADUALLY 
MERGE WITH THE GAP WIND PLUME GRADUALLY EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM OF 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

GAP WINDS...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO. THE COLDER...DENSER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL THROUGH 
THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OVERNIGHT...WITH 
WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE AROUND 09Z. AS A RESULT...A 
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THE GALE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SAT 
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
BELOW GALE FORCE BY SAT NIGHT AND WILL BE LESS THAN 20 KT SUN 
NIGHT. 

$$
STRIPLING