000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT NOV 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N82W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 09N97W TO A SECOND LOW PRES NEAR 10N108W TO 09N125W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF LOW 
CENTERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR 10N111W AND NEAR 
09N117W.  

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 
25 KT TRADE WINDS MAINLY S OF 25N AND W OF 120W ASSOCIATED WITH 
A 1026 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 32N136W. THESE WINDS ARE 
RAISING SEAS UP TO 12 FT. A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATED 
NE WINDS OF 20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA...ON THE FAR 
EAST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES S. THIS WILL ALLOW 
THE WINDS OFF THE BAJA COAST TO WEAKEN IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE 
COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE INTO NORTHERN BAJA SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY 
SUN MORNING FOLLOWED BY A NEW ROUND OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW IN 
THE WATERS OFF BAJA SUN AND MON...WITH 8 TO 12 FT SEAS IN N 
SWELL. HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN THE 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 25N W OF 120W INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
EXPECT SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN N AND NE SWELL TO PERSIST. 

FURTHER WEST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS PARKED W OF AREA 
NEAR 145W. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 15N119W IS HELPING TO 
INDUCE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. 

E OF 110W...A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ AT 107W. 
THIS IS A FAIRLY WEAK SYSTEM...WITH ONLY 10 TO 15 KT WINDS. 
FURTHER EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 09N97W 
ANALYZED 1009 MB ON THE 00Z SURFACE MAP. WINDS OF 20 KT ARE 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM NE QUADRANT LOW CENTER...WHICH IS NOW MOVING 
WWD AROUND 7 KT. 

WINDS ALONG THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE BELOW 20 KT IN ABOUT 
12 HOURS...BUT ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 TO 25 KT SUN 
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
AND NW MEXICO. 

GAP WINDS...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO. THE COLDER...DENSER AIR WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA 
PASS INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING A 
GAP WIND EVENT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE FORCE AROUND 
09Z. AS A RESULT...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THE GALE WILL 
PERSIST THROUGH SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE BY SAT NIGHT AND WILL BE 
LESS THAN 20 KT SUN NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IXTEPEC IN OAXACA 
MEXICO HAS N WINDS OF 10 KT. 

$$
GR