000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI NOV 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 08N82W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 09N97W TO ANOTHER LOW PRES NEAR 10N107W TO 09N125W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 
120 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF EASTERNMOST LOW PRES. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 118W AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...A RECENT ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH A WINDSAT PASS FROM 
THIS MORNING SHOW A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADES MAINLY S OF 
25N AND W OF 120W ASSOCIATED WITH A 1027 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED 
NEAR 32N136W. THESE WINDS ARE RAISING SEAS UP TO 12 FT. SHIP AND 
ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL BAJA...ON THE FAR EAST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. 
HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES S. THIS 
WILL ALLOW THE WINDS OFF THE BAJA COAST TO WEAKEN IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE INTO NORTHERN BAJA SAT NIGHT 
INTO EARLY SUN MORNING FOLLOWED BY A NEW ROUND OF FRESH 
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WATERS OFF BAJA SUN AND MON...WITH 8 TO 12 
FT SEAS IN N SWELL. 

FURTHER WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PARKED W OF AREA NEAR 
145W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RELATED TO THE STRONG TRADES AIDED 
BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 118W AND 128W. THE 
TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH ALONG 145W AND HIGH PRES 
BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 25N W OF 130W INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
EXPECT SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN N AND NE SWELL TO PERSIST.    

E OF 110W...A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ AT 107W. 
ASCAT DATA INDICATE THIS IS STILL FAIRLY WEAK...WITH ONLY 10 TO 
15 KT WINDS...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW. FURTHER EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS 
ALONG THE ITCZ AT 97W...1009 MB...WITH MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION. WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM E 
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. THESE LOW PRES ARE DRIFTING WWD ALONG 
THE ITCZ AXIS.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIMITED ASCAT DATA SHOW 20 TO 25 KT OVER 
THE NORTHERN GULF...N OF 26N...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE 
AREA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH 
PRES WEAKENS.

GAP WINDS...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF 
MEXICO FOLLOWED BY GALE FORCE WINDS. THE COLDER...DENSER AIR 
WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH GALE 
FORCE SAT MORNING. AS A RESULT...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. 
THE GALE WILL PERSIST ABOUT 12 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 
FT...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO BELOW GALE FORCE BY SAT NIGHT.

$$
GR/EC