000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261547
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI NOV 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 09N84W TO 10N90W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N96W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 10N107W TO 08N125W TO 10N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 
98W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 105W AND 106W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 
90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 112W AND 128W. 

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...ASCAT AND WINDSAT DATA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS 
SHOW A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 25 KT TRADES MAINLY S OF 25N AND W OF 
120W. AN ASCAT PASS FROM LATE YESTERDAY SHOWED 8 TO 11 
FT...LIKELY IN N AND NE SWELL IN THIS AREA AS WELL. THE TRADES 
ARE ACTIVE S OF A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 33N135W. SHIP AND 
ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW 20 TO 25 KT NE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF 
CENTRAL BAJA...ON THE FAR EAST PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH. 
HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT OFF THE WASHINGTON 
AND OREGON COAST PUSHES S. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADES BETWEEN 120W 
AND 130W TO WEAKEN TODAY AS WELL AS THE WINDS OFF THE BAJA 
COAST. FURTHER WEST...AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PARKED ALONG 
145W...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 145W S OF FROM 
10N TO 20N. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RELATED TO THE STRONG TRADES 
AIDED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH 
IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W AND 135W. 
THE TIGHTER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH ALONG 145W AND HIGH PRES 
BUILDING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH WILL MAINTAIN THE 
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 25N W OF 130W INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 
EXPECT SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FT IN N AND NE SWELL TO PERSIST. 
MEANWHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE INTO NORTHERN BAJA SAT 
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A NEW 
ROUND OF FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WATERS OFF BAJA SUN AND 
MON...WITH 8 TO 12 FT SEAS IN N SWELL.   

E OF 110W...A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ AT 107W. 
ASCAT DATA INDICATE THIS IS STILL FAIRLY WEAK...WITH ONLY 10 TO 
15 KT WINDS...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME MODERATE 
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW. FURTHER EAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS 
ALONG THE ITCZ AT 97W...1009 MB. ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH A 
TOGA-TAO BUOY SHOW 15 TO 20 KT...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THAT HAS SINCE DIMINISHED. 
ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS SHOW THESE FEATURE PERSISTING AT LEAST INTO 
SUN AS THE MOVE W ALONG THE ITCZ. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT IS 
PUSHING THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLDER...DENSER 
AIR WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS AND INTO THE 
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY LATE SAT NIGHT...DELIVERING WINDS TO GALE 
FORCE. THE GALE WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT...THEN DIMINISH TO BELOW 
GALE FORCE BY SUN NIGHT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIMITED ASCAT DATA SHOW 20 TO 25 KT OVER 
THE NORTHERN GULF...N OF 26N...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE 
AREA. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AS THE HIGH 
PRES WEAKENS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN