000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261011
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI NOV 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 10N85W TO LOW PRES NEAR 09N96W TO 10N105W TO 
08N124W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED 
WITHIN 150 NM IN N SEMICIRCLE OF LOW PRES CENTER. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF 
AXIS ALONG 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS W OF 108W.  

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW WAS DIGGING SW THIS MORNING.... 
LOCATED JUST E OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII AND W OF 140W. THIS 
WAS AIDING IN AMPLIFYING UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA BETWEEN 120W AND 140W. A STRONG AND BROAD JET STREAM BRANCH 
WAS NOTED ALONG THE BASE OF THIS DIGGING CYCLONE S OF 10N W OF 
130W. THE UPPER FLOW HAS BECOME VERY DIVERGENT ALONG ABOUT 10N 
AND 140W IN RESPONSE TO PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING 
ALONG AND N OF THE ITCZ THERE. FATHER E...UPPER RIDGING 
CONTINUES ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND  MUCH OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...AND EXTENDS W ALONG 16N ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SRN 
MEXICO TO 113W. THE REMNANT OF AN EQUATORIAL UPPER LOW SEPARATED 
THE TWO RIDGES S OF 17N AT ABOUT 115W. UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST 
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION E OF 125W WHILE THE CUT-OFF LOW 
DIGS S AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 18N148W...WITH A 
NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH EXTENDING SE TO NEAR THE EQUATOR ALONG 
120W. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR VERY 
ACTIVE CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG AND N OF THE 
ITCZ W OF 120W.

AT THE SURFACE...1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 32N136W EXTENDS 
A RIDGE SE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W 
OF 110W. THIS GRADIENT AND ALIGNMENT OF THE HIGH WAS PRODUCING 
NLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA THAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 24 HOURS 
BEFORE FALLING BELOW 20 KT. ALSO...THIS SURFACE HIGH IS PART OF 
A BROAD E TO W RIDGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE E AND CENTRAL 
PACIFIC THIS HAS CREATED A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE S OF 
THE RIDGE THAT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 
ABOUT 115W WWD ACROSS AND TO THE S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. 
RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS BETWEEN THE 
ITCZ AND 24N LOCATED W OF 130W....WHERE SEAS ARE FORECAST BY 
WWIII TO BE IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE. STRONG LLVL FORCING INDUCED 
BY THESE TRADES CONTINUES TO YIELD VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS 
THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 120W AND 
150W...THAT WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN THE UPPER RIDGING FORECAST BY 
THE GLOBAL MODELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ELSEWHERE...A 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FAR N WATERS LATE 
SAT INTO SUN FOLLOWED BY A NEW PULSE OF NW SWELL.

FURTHER SOUTH...A WEAK LOW PRES WAS CENTERED NEAR 9N96W AND  
ANALYZED 1009 MB ON THE 06Z SURFACE MAP. WINDS OF 20 KT ARE 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF LOW CENTER PER A RECENT ASCAT PASS. THE 
LOW PRES WILL DRIFT WWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN. 

GAP WINDS...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE DEVELOPING GALE FORCE WINDS 
EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A SURGE OF COLD 
AIR MOVES THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. BASED ON LATEST MODEL  
GUIDANCE...THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED EVENT...WHICH 
PROBABLY LAST ABOUT 12 HOURS...BETWEEN 1200 UTC SAT AND 0000 UTC 
SUN. 

$$
STRIPLING