000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260333
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI NOV 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 10N86W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 09.5N95W TO 11N108W TO 09N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM W 
SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO NOTED FROM 
10N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS FROM 129W TO 137W. 

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW...AHEAD OF A CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED 
JUST W OF THE FORECAST AREA DOMINATES MOST OF THE FORECAST 
WATERS N OF 15N. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 70-90 KT 
IS NOTED WITHIN THIS FLOW EXTENDING FROM 18N138W TO 28N124W TO 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 110 KT. AN 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SE MEXICO EXTENDS A RIDGE 
WWD TO NEAR 16N110W. OVER THE DEEP TROPICS...A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 4N108W. MODERATE TO STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS AND THE IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS 
IS SEEN S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 80W AND 112W.   

AT THE SURFACE...1027 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 35N136W EXTENDS 
A RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 
110W. ASCAT DATA SHOW A BROAD AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE 
WINDS S OF THE HIGH PRES...MAINLY N OF 09N W OF 125W. SHIP AND 
ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW 20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW N OF 25N E OF 125W TO 
THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...RELATED TO A WEAKENING 
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MEXICO. THE TRADE WIND FLOW 
AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF NORTHER BAJA WILL DIMINISH IN 
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE 
SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SE AND WEAKENS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT 
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FAR N WATERS LATE SAT INTO SUN FOLLOWED 
BY A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL.

HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG NW 
FLOW TO BLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. SURFACE DATA IS 
ALREADY INDICATING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE N OF 29N. 
THESE WIND SPEEDS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AND FRI BUT IS FORECAST 
TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY SAT. 

FURTHER SOUTH...A WEAK LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 9.5N95W 
ANALYZED 1009 MB ON THE 00Z SURFACE MAP. WINDS OF 20 KT ARE 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM NE QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER PER AN EARLIER 
ASCAT PASS. THE LOW PRES WILL DRIFT WWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE. 

GAP WINDS...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. 
CURRENTLY...THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE 
WINDS EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A SURGE OF 
COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. BASED ON MARINE 
GUIDANCE...THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED EVENT...WHICH 
PROBABLY LAST ABOUT 12 HOURS. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED  
FOR THIS AREA.

$$
GR