000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 09N84W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 09N93W TO 10N110W TO 09N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N 
QUADRANT OF LOW. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF AXIS FROM 126W TO 130W AND NEAR 09N134W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 101W AND 105W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 107W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
1029 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 36N135W EXTENDS A RIDGE 
OVER THE FORECAST WATERS COVERING THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 110W. 
THIS FEATURE WILL SHIFT SE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASCAT DATA 
SHOW A BROAD FIELD OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS S OF THE HIGH 
PRES...MAINLY N OF 09N W OF 120W. SHIP AND ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW 
20 KT NORTHERLY FLOW N OF 25N E OF 120W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA...RELATED TO A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING 
THROUGH NW MEXICO. THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW 
OFF NORTHER BAJA WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SE AND 
WEAKENS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 126W.

E OF 110W...
E WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FUNNELING THROUGH COSTA RICA 
AND INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD DIMINISH TONIGHT. FURTHER 
SOUTH...A WEAK LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 9N93W ANALYZED 1010 MB 
ON THE 18Z SURFACE MAP. WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM 
NE QUADRANT OF LOW CENTER PER AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. THE LOW 
PRES WILL DRIFT WWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS EARLY 
SAT MORNING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR 
MOVES THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. CURRENT INDICATIONS IN 
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SHOW THAT THIS WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT 
LIVED EVENT...PERHAPS THROUGH SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW TO 
SET UP IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A COUPLE OF OBSERVATIONS OVER 
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS GULF SHOW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT 
RANGE. 

$$
GR/EC