000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251605
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU NOV 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS AXIS 08N78W TO 
09N88W TO 10N110W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS CONVECTION 
BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 
NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 130W 
AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
W OF 110W...
1031 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 37N137W WILL SHIFT SE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASCAT DATA SHOW A BROAD FIELD OF FRESH 
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS S OF THE HIGH PRES...MAINLY N OF 11N W OF 
115W. SHIP AND ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW 20 TO 25 KT NORTHERLY FLOW N 
OF 25N E OF 120W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BAJA...RELATED TO A 
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH NW MEXICO. A SHIP 
OBSERVATION CORROBORATES THE WAVEWATCH III MODEL INITIALIZATION 
SHOWING SEAS UP TO 15 FT IN N SWELL...JUST N OF THE AREA A 
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 
THE WAVEWATCH SHOWS THIS SWELL MOVING INTO THE WATERS W OF 
NORTHERN BAJA COAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECAYING TO 
LESS THAN 8 FT AS THEY TRAVERSE FURTHER S. THE TRADE WIND FLOW 
AND THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF NORTHER BAJA WILL DIMINISH IN 
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE 
SURFACE HIGH PRES SHIFTS SE AND WEAKENS. MEANWHILE CLUSTERS OF  
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION PERSIST ALONG THE ITCZ...DUE TO 
LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ON 
THE SE SIDE OF AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ABOUT 800 NM NE OF 
HAWAII. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE W OF 135W S OF 15N THROUGH 
SAT MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW CENTER CUTS OFF TO THE WEST.

E OF 110W...
E WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FUNNELING THROUGH COSTA RICA 
AND INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY. FURTHER 
SOUTH...SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW 20 KT SW FLOW S OF PANAMA THAT 
WILL ALSO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE 
POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS EARLY SAT MORNING IN THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC AS A SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES THROUGH THE SW GULF OF 
MEXICO. CURRENT INDICATIONS IN GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SHOW THAT THIS 
WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED EVENT...PERHAPS THROUGH SAT.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...
HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW FRESH TO STRONG NW FLOW TO 
SET UP IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TODAY AND PERSIST INTO 
SAT.

$$
CHRISTENSEN