000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250930
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU NOV 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM 07N78W TO 
09N87W TO 09N110W TO 08N117W TO 09N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL NW OF THE REGION NEAR 39N139W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS COVERING THE AREA N 
OF 15N AND W OF 110W. A LARGE AREA OF ENHANCED TRADE WINDS IS 
NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HIGHEST WINDS AND 
LARGEST SEAS WILL MAINLY BE FROM 12N TO 23N W OF 120W OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SIERRA MADRE 
IS PRODUCING FRESH NW WINDS OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
PARTICULARLY N OF 26N AND E OF 116W. 

A FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH FROM NW MEXICO AND NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS IN THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND FRI. EXPECT NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT. 
DESPITE THE SHORT FETCH...NOAA WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE INDICATES 
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT. WINDS FROM THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ALSO 
GENERATE LARGE NW SWELL OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WHICH IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH 
SEAS TO 12 FT TODAY.

DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 
WEAK TRADE WIND DISTURBANCE N OF THE ITCZ NEAR 11N136W.

GAP WINDS...
ELY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES BRINGING 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT TONIGHT. 

COMPUTER MODEL ANTICIPATES A SHORT-LIVED GALE FORCE WIND EVENT 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY SAT. N WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT 
ARE EXPECTED EARLY SAT THROUGH SUN MORNING. GFS MODEL SHOWS PEAK 
WINDS AROUND 35 KT SAT MORNING...POSSIBLE GALE.

$$
MUNDELL