000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250316
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU NOV 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 06N77W TO 
07N95W TO 09N109W TO 09N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60-80 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 105W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 07N TO 
10N BETWEEN 105 AND 113W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL NW OF THE REGION NEAR 40N140W
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE OVER THE FORECAST WATERS COVERING THE AREA 
N OF 15N AND W OF 110W. A LARGE AREA OF TRADE WINDS IS NOTED 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE 
20 TO 25 KT RANGE AND THE LARGEST SEAS UP TO 12 FT WILL MAINLY 
OCCUR FROM 12N TO 23N W OF 120W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
IN ADDITION...TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SIERRA MADRE IS PRODUCING FRESH NW 
WINDS OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA PARTICULARLY N OF 26N 
AND E OF 116W. 

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
THU WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NW 
MEXICO THU NIGHT AND FRI...ALLOWING NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TO 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE THU INTO FRI. DESPITE 
THE SHORT FETCH...NOAA WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS 
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE THU/EARLY FRI. 
WINDS FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE LARGE NW SWELL OFF 
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS TO 12 FT TONIGHT AND THU.

A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS HELPING TO INDUCE AN AREA OF 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 
132W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS.

GAP WINDS...
ELY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES BRINGING 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THU NIGHT. 

COMPUTER MODEL ANTICIPATES A SHORT-LIVED GALE FORCE WIND EVENT 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY SAT. N WINDS OF 20 KT ARE 
EXPECTED FRI NIGHT.

$$
GR