000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242134
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 07N78W TO 
07N95W TO 10N108W TO 09N124W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 95W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM 
N OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 115W...AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 108W AND 113W. 

...DISCUSSION...
A STRONG HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL NW OF THE REGION EXTENDS A RIDGE 
OVER THE FORECAST AREA COVERING N OF 15N AND W OF 110W. PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS 
MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES MAINLY FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 120W. TIGHT 
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE 
OVER SIERRA MADRE IS PRODUCING FRESH WINDS OFF THE NW COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND 
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN FRESH WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF AREA 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 
THU WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NW 
MEXICO THU NIGHT AND FRI...ALLOWING NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TO 
FUNNEL THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE THU INTO FRI. DESPITE 
THE SHORT FETCH...NOAA WAVE WATCH III GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS 
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE THU/EARLY FRI. 
WINDS FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE LARGE NW SWELL OFF 
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN 
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS TO 12 FT TONIGHT AND THU.

GAP WINDS...
ELY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES BRINGING 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THU NIGHT. 

COMPUTER MODEL ANTICIPATES A SHORT-LIVED GALE FORCE WIND EVENT 
THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY SAT.

$$
GR