000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241534
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED NOV 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS W FROM 9N82W 7N89W 9N99W 9N130W 10N140W. A WEAK 
1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 9N85W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 122W/123W FROM 7N 
TO 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
240 NM N OF ITCZ BETWEEN 98W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 85W 
AND 98W. 

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1034 MB HIGH WELL NW OF 
THE REGION THROUGH 32N136W TO NEAR 20N118W. PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ IS MAINTAINING 
FRESH TRADES FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 120W. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SIERRA MADRE 
IS PRODUCING FRESH WINDS OFF THE NW COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. 
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN 
FRESH WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA THU WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
OVER NW MEXICO THU NIGHT AND FRI...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR 
NEAR-GALE FORCE NW WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA ON THU INTO FRI. DESPITE THE SHORT FETCH...WW3 WAVE 
MODEL SHOWS SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATE 
THU/EARLY FRI. WINDS FROM THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE 
LARGE NW SWELL OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS TO 12 
FT WED NIGHT AND THU.

ELY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES BRINGING 20 KT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WINDS IN THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THU NIGHT. A SHORT 
DURATION HIGH WIND EVENT IS LIKELY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING.

$$
PAW