000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS EXTENDS W FROM 09N84W TO 08N108W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 97W AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 40N143W 
THROUGH 30N130W TO NEAR 20N112W. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE 
AND LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES 
FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 120W. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SIERRA MADRE IS PRODUCING 
FRESH WINDS OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HIGH PRES 
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN FRESH 
WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THU WILL 
DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NW MEXICO THU 
NIGHT AND FRI...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR-GALE TO GALE 
FORCE NW WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 
48 HOURS. DESPITE THE SHORT FETCH...WW3 WAVE MODEL SHOWS SEAS 
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FRI. WINDS FROM THE 
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO GENERATE LARGE NW SWELL OFF THE COAST OF 
CALIFORNIA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTION OF 
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SEAS TO 12 FT WED NIGHT AND THU.

ELY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES BRINGING 20 KT WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WINDS IN THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT THU NIGHT. A SHORT 
DURATION HIGH WIND EVENT IS LIKELY IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FRI
NIGHT THROUGH SUN MORNING.

$$
MUNDELL