000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED NOV 24 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 09N84W TO 
09N100W TO 08N110W TO 09N125W TO 11N138W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 07N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 07N TO 11N BETWEEN 89W AND 
110W...FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 118W AND 124W...NEAR 10N131W AND 
NEAR 09N139W.   

...DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE 
AREA EXTENDING FROM 30N134W TO 18N139W. A JET-STREAM BRANCH WITH 
CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT IS SE OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND EXTENDS 
FROM 21N134W TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE SW FLOW ALONG AND 
S OF THE JET IS ADVECTING ITCZ MOISTURE NE TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER NORTHERN 
CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDS A RIDGE W-NW TO NEAR 14N120W. THE RIDGE 
ALSO COVERS SE MEXICO. UPPER DIFFLUENCE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF 
THE RIDGE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. IN THE 
DEEP TROPICS...AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED 
NEAR 3N112W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND THE 
IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS IS OBSERVED S OF THE ITCZ AND E OF 120W. 

AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE AREA N OF 12N W 
OF 110W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED ON 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 120W. A 
SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM 16N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE 
TROUGH AND WHERE THE TROUGH AXIS MEETS THE ITCZ. A PAIR OF WEAK 
SURFACE LOWS ARE SEEN WITHIN THE ITCZ. ONE IS NEAR 09N85W 
ANALYZED 1007 MB ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE MAP. THE SECOND ONE IS 
A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 09N121W.    

MARINE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY THU AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A 
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND LOWER PRES OVER NE 
MEXICO. EXPECT NW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE AND BUILDING 
SEAS UP TO 8 FT.

LARGE NLY SWELL MIXED WITH NE WIND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TRADE WINDS ARE RAISING SEAS UP TO 12 FT N OF 12N AND W OF 115W. 
THE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST 
AREA W OF 110W BY WED. 

GAP WINDS...
ELY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES BRINGING 20 KT WINDS INTO THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID OF NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THIS WEATHER PATTERN 
IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

$$
GR