000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN NOV 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS FROM 09N84W TO 08N91W TO 
11N110W TO 09N128W TO 10N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. EXTENDING SWD TO 
26N123W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM 30N119W TO 
26N126W THEN WESTWARD AS A SHEAR LINE TO 24N140W. FRESH N WINDS 
WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COLD 
FRONT WILL LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DISSIPATE AS THE 
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE 
TRADES FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 130W IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND 
WILL EXPAND FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 118W BY 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL 
ALSO FRESHEN OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITHIN 36-48 
HOURS. A SECOND SURGE OF NW SWELL TO 14 FT WILL SPREAD SWD INTO 
THE AREA N OF 23N W OF 120W BY MON NIGHT.

GAP WINDS...
20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO LESS THAN 20 KT MON.

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES...BRINGING FRESH WINDS INTO 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE WITH THE STRONGEST 
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID 
OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 

$$
MUNDELL