000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210312
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN NOV 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09.5N85W TO 
07N93W TO 07.5N114W TO 10N120W TO 09N126W TO 10N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES OF 
THE US SWD TO 28N125W. THIS TROUGH HAS PROVIDED SUPPORT FOR A 
COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM 30N121W TO 26N140W. FRESH N TO NE 
WINDS WITH SEAS 8 TO 11 FT IN NW SWELL ARE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 
COLD FRONT WILL LOSE ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DISSIPATE AS 
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE 
TRADES FROM 12N TO 20N W OF 130W IN 24 HOURS...AND WILL EXPAND 
FROM 10N TO 20N W OF 118W IN 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL ALSO FRESHEN 
OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WITHIN 48 HOURS. A SECOND 
SURGE OF NW SWELL OF 9 TO 14 FT TO SPREAD SWD INTO THE AREA N OF 
23N W OF 120W BY MON NIGHT. 

GAP WINDS...
WINDS OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY 
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 42 HOURS TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY MON 
AFTERNOON. 

FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING 
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AMERICA PASSES...BRINGING FRESH WINDS INTO 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE WITH THE STRONGEST 
WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE AID 
OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. 

$$
AL