000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182116
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU NOV 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 08N83W TO 06N95W TO 11N111W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 60 NM S OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 123W AND 127W.

...DISCUSSION...
A WEAK 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 29N122W WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT 
COLLAPSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES 
THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF THIS 
HIGH HAS LIMITED TRADES WINDS N OF THE  ITCZ TO LESS THAN 20 KT. 
NLY GALE FORCE FLOW IS BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS 
TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN TO AT OR NEAR STORM 
FORCE WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE 
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE 
WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND THAT WILL  
BLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND ESTABLISH ELY TRADE WINDS ACROSS 
THE FAR E TROPICAL EPAC N OF THE ITCZ BY SAT AFTERNOON.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY SAT 
MORNING AND WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS SE THROUGH SUN...WITH HIGH PRES 
BEHIND IT STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS W 
PORTIONS...AND BRINGING A RETURN OF MODERATE TO FRESH NELY TRADE 
WINDS W OF 115W.
 
$$
AL