000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172116
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 07N83W TO 06N93W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N112W 
THEN CONTINUES TO 09N125W TO 11N135W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF LOW. 
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE 1025 MB CENTERED NEAR 36N140W WITH 
WEAK RIDGING TO NEAR 29N108W. AS A RESULT OF THE WEAKENING HIGH 
PRESSURE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LOOSENED AND IS NO LONGER 
SUPPORTING TRADES ABOVE 20 KT OVER THE NW PART OF THE FORECAST 
AREA. SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN NW SWELL CONTINUES NW OF LINE 
30N120W TO 12N125W TO 07N140W. THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO 
SUBSIDE...TO LESS THAN 8 FT WITHIN 48 HOURS. 

N WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THU AND 
REACH GALE FORCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES S 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ACROSS THE TEHUANTEPEC AREA MAY 
INCREASE FURTHER AND REACH AT OR ABOVE STORM FORCE THURSDAY 
NIGHT.

THE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 12N112W HAS BEEN DRIFTING NW ALONG THE 
ITCZ FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAS ATTAINED A CONSIDERABLE 
AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING. THIS LOW IS BEING 
MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...AND WILL 
MAINTAIN WINDS TO AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS AT OR JUST BELOW 8 FT.

$$
AL