000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170923
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED NOV 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 9N84W 7N94W 12N110W 11N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS FROM 109W-117W. 

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION WITH 
AXIS FROM 32N130W TO 20N132W TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 
10N130W.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS E OF THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 
NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION NEAR 25N125W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH 
VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA N OF 25N E OF 130W. SW 
TO W FLOW ALOFT SE OF TROUGH IS ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM THE SW CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO 9N93W. 
IN THE DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 4N124W. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED S OF 10N BETWEEN 95W-120W.

THREE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE FIRST IS FROM 
10N-15N ALONG 111W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS 
DESCRIBED IN ITCZ SECTION. SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N-13N 
ALONG 121W SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF TROUGH FROM 
10N-13N. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N-17N ALONG 139W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF TROUGH FROM 11N-13N. 
OTHERWISE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 17N W OF 110W. 
THE RIDGE HAS WEAKENED AND THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE NW 
PORTION OF THE AREA HOWEVER LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS TO 12 FT 
CONTINUE BUT ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE RE-ENFORCED
AND STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF WITH A STRONG 
PRES GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS 
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC BY THU NIGHT.

$$
DGS