000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161556 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC TUE NOV 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1430 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 08N84W TO 06N90W TO 12N113W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM S AND 120 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 116W...AND ALSO W OF 127W. ...DISCUSSION... THE OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS MORNING...BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS FOCUSED ON A LARGE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 32N131W THAT HAS BECOME MORE NW TO SE ALIGNED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. A SHARP AND NARROW MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM A BROAD TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE U.S. EXTENDING INTO NRN MEXICO THEN EXTENDS W ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF BAJA TO AN ELONGATED AND NARROW VORT CENTER NEAR 24N128W THEN CONTINUED N-NW TO AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR 24N145W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES WITHIN AND JUST TO THE N OF THIS NARROW TUTT LIKE AXIS. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO THE W OF THE AREA AND A VERY STRONG UPPER CYCLONE ACROSS THE FAR NE PACIFIC ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ERODE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BY 72 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF JAMAICA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 15N TO 92W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS TURNING TO THE W AND SW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH NOTED ABOVE GENERALLY BETWEEN 95W AND 120W. A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC S OF 13N BETWEEN 115W AND 135W WITH THE CIRCULATION EXTENDING WELL S OF THE EQUATOR TO 10S. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE IN THE VICINITY OF A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 12N113W...AND WAS MAINTAINING DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW BETWEEN 108W AND 118W. STRONG LLVL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ W OF 126W WAS ALSO PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF DEEP PULSING CONVECTION INDUCING SIMILAR UPPER DIVERGENCE...AND HAS BECOME VERY DIVERGENT ALONG 10N W OF 136W. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING 1037 MB HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 40N144W WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NEAR 22N110W. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATED BETWEEN THIS LARGE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE TROPICS WAS MAINTAINING FRESH NE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT GENERALLY N OF 25N AND W OF 128W...WITH THIS AREA BEING CAPTURED BY RECENT WINDSAT AND ASCAT PASSES OVERNIGHT. NE WIND SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA WAS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 10 TO 14 FT...AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ELSEWHERE NW OF A LINE FROM 30N125W TO 15N140W. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...FLATTEN...AND SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT INDUCED TRADEWINDS TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. IN ADDITION...AS THE WIND FIELD DIMINISHES...SEAS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WILL ALSO BEGIN A SUBSIDING TREND AS WELL... WITH A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT WAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION ZONE. E OF 110W...MONSOONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WITH MODERATE SW WINDS S OF THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WLY WINDS TO ITS N. AN 0424 UTC ASCAT PASS OVERNIGHT DEPICTED WLY WINDS TO 20 KT ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST E OF 105W THAT TURNED SW INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND HAVE LIKELY TURNED S THROUGH THE PASSAGE THERE AND FLOW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW INTO THESE TWO GULFS WILL LIKELY SHIT DOWN DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT SINKS S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH NLY WINDS TO 25 KT ARE FORECAST BY 48 HOURS THROUGH TEHUANTEPEC BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SW TO S WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FAR E WATERS S OF THE ITCZ AND E OF 87W FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS YIELDING ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS PANAMA AND SEAS 6-7 FT. $$ STRIPLING