000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160837
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE NOV 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 8N84W 5N90W 12N110W 11N130W 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS FROM 
110W-116W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF AXIS 
FROM 129W-131W AND WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS FROM 137W-140W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION NEAR 32N132W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS S OF THE 
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH 
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 24N127W. 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH VERY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT 
ACROSS THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 125W. SW TO W FLOW ALOFT SE OF 
TROUGH IS ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO 
CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW 
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. IN THE 
DEEP TROPICS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 10N125W TO THE 
EQUATOR AT 122W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED S OF 7N BETWEEN 
90W-130W.

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 8N84W 
STATIONARY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW IS 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM 16N111W TO A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 
13N112W TROUGH CONTINUES TO 8N112W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THE 
LOW IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION. THE LOW IS NEARLY 
STATIONARY WITH AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS 180 NM OVER S SEMICIRCLE. 
OTHERWISE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N W OF 110W. 
THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A TIGHT ENOUGH PRES GRADIENT TO GENERATE 
20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH NORTHERLY 
SWELLS TO 13 FT.

$$
DGS