000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160325 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE NOV 16 2010 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ANALYZED FROM LOW PRES 1008 MB NEAR 08N85W TO 08N85W TO 06N91W TO LOW PRES 1011 MB NEAR 12N113W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 114W AND 120W. ...DISCUSSION... AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA FOCUSED ON A LARGE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 32N130W. A SHARP AND NARROW MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SW OVER NW MEXICO TO A BASE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 27N112W. IT CONTINUES WESTWARD ALONG 24N AS A SHEAR AXIS THROUGH 24N130W TO 28N140W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WAS OCCURRING WITHIN AND JUST TO THE N OF THIS AXIS. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE... SLOWLY ERODE...AND WEAKEN THE STRONG RIDGE BY 48 TO 72 HOURS... DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EAST OF THE NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS COAST NEAR 15N76W...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 15N TO 94W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS TURNING TO THE W AND SW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH NOTED ABOVE GENERALLY BETWEEN 95W AND 120W. A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR 07N125W WITH THE CIRCULATION SPANNING BOTH SIDES OF THE EQUATOR. DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 12N113W WAS INDUCING AND MAINTAINING DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE NE OF THIS UPPER CYCLONE FROM 08N TO 15N BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. AT THE SURFACE...A SPRAWLING 1038 MB HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR 41N143W WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NEAR 20N110W. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATED BETWEEN THIS LARGE HIGH AND LOWER PRESSURES ACROSS THE TROPICS WAS MAINTAINING FRESH NE TRADES OF 20 TO 25 KT GENERALLY N OF 24N AND W OF 128W...WITH THIS AREA BEING CAPTURED BY RECENT WINDSAT AND ASCAT PASSES WITHIN THE LAST SIX HOURS. NE WIND SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA WAS MIXING WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 10 TO 13 FT...AND SEAS 8 TO 10 FT ELSEWHERE NW OF A LINE FROM 30N123W TO 08N140W. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...FLATTEN...AND SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT INDUCED TRADEWINDS TO DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. IN ADDITION...AS THE WIND FIELD DIMINISHES...SEAS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WILL ALSO BEGIN A SUBSIDING TREND AS WELL... WITH A NEW PULSE OF LONG PERIOD NW SWELL ENTERING THE AREA BY LATE TUESDAY AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT WAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION ZONE. $$ HUFFMAN