000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151552
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON NOV 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 09N80W TO 10N92W TO LOW PRES 1011 MB NEAR 
11N112W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 120W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N OF 
AXIS W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
THIS MORNING...CENTERED ON A LARGE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE 
NE PACIFIC WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 36N134W. A 
SHARP AND NARROW MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A BROAD 
UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE NRN U.S. WITH BASE OVER N CENTRAL 
MEXICO...EXTENDING W-SW ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUES 
W AS A SHEAR AXIS THROUGH 22N130W TO 25N140W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
WAS OCCURRING WITHIN AND JUST TO THE N OF THIS TUTT LIKE 
AXIS...WHILE SPEED DIVERGENCE GENERALLY PREVAILED WITHIN 300 NM 
TO THE S OF THE AXIS.  

SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST BY ALL THE 
GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND BEGIN 
TO FLATTEN AND WEAKEN THIS STRONG RIDGE BY 48 TO 72 HOURS... 
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A 
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN JUST OFF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...WITH 
AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SE 
U.S. AND ALSO RIDGING NW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. UPPER LEVEL 
FLOW WAS TURNING TO THE W AND SW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH 
NOTED ABOVE GENERALLY BETWEEN 90W AND 120W. A BROAD MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR 05N123W WITH THE CIRCULATION 
SPANNING BOTH SIDES OF THE EQUATOR. DEEP CONVECTION IN THE 
VICINITY OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N112W WAS INDUCING AND 
MAINTAINING DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO THE NE OF THIS UPPER 
CYCLONE. 

CURRENTLY...A SPRAWLING 1042 MB HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED UNDER THE 
UPPER RIDGE NEAR 41N143W WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING WELL INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NEAR 18N110W. THE 
STRONG PRES GRADIENT CREATED BETWEEN THIS LARGE HIGH AND LOWER 
PRESSURES ACROSS THE TROPICS WAS MAINTAINING FRESH NE TRADES OF 
20-25 KT GENERALLY N OF 11N AND W OF 125W...WITH N TO NE WINDS 
OF 30 KT INDICATED BY OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASSES N OF 27.5N 
AND W OF 127W. NE WIND SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA WAS MIXING 
WITH LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT...AND 12 
TO 14 FT IN THE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN...FLATTEN...AND SHIFT SLOWLY SW DURING THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT INDUCED TRADEWINDS TO 
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. SEA ACROSS THIS AREA WILL THUS BEGIN A 
GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND...WITH A NEW PULSE OF NW ENTERING THE 
AREA TODAY BECOMING THE DOMINANT WAVE ENERGY BY 24 HOURS. 

A MONSOONAL CIRCULATION HAS AGAIN EVOLVED DURING THE PAST 
SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND FAR TROPICAL EPAC... 
WITH SW TO W WINDS TO 20 KT OCCURRING N OF 03N AND E OF 87W THIS 
MORNING. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 24 HOURS AND 
THEN SHIFT E OF 84W AND BECOME MORE SW TO S BY 48 HOURS. THIS 
FLOW WAS FEEDING INTO AN AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
WHICH NOW HAS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
STRIPLING