000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150917
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON NOV 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS ALONG 7N80W 11N110W 10N130W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 109W-115W AND WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS FROM 136W-140W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW N OF 26N W OF 117W. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA 
TO 24N138W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH VERY DRY STABLE 
AIR ALOFT IS ACROSS THE AREA FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 115W-135W. A 
90-100 KT JET STREAM SE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
22N115W ACROSS SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 120-125 KT. SW TO W FLOW ALOFT S 
OF JET IS ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ TO 
ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW 
CARIBBEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO TO 17N115W. 
IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
CENTERED NEAR 4N125W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED S OF 5N BETWEEN 
90W-100W.

A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 8N87W 
DRIFTING E A FEW SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE LOW CENTER. THE LOW IS 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. A SECOND 1012 MB SURFACE 
LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR 11N111W WITH A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW NE TO 16N108W. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
WITH THE LOW IS DESCRIBED IN THE ITCZ SECTION. THE LOW IS NEARLY 
STATIONARY WITH AN AREA OF 20 KT WINDS 240 NM OF CENTER. 
OTHERWISE HIGH PRES RIDGE COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 115W. 
THE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A TIGHT ENOUGHT PRES GRADIENT TO GENERATE 
20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH NORTHERLY 
SWELLS TO 13 FT.

$$
DGS