000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142148
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN NOV 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ANALYZED ALONG 09N84W TO 07N95W TO LOW PRES 1011 MB NEAR 
11N111W TO 09N115W TO 10N130W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 108W 
AND 115W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 127W 
AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA CHARACTERIZED BY 
OMEGA BLOCK CENTERED ON A LARGE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE NE 
PACIFIC WITH UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 40N135W. A SHEARING MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A BROAD UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE 
NRN U.S. CUTTING SW ACROSS NEW MEXICO TO A SHEARED UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 30N110W THEN CONTINUES WSW ACROSS BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUES AS A SHEAR AXIS THROUGH 25N130W TO 
25N140W.  

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WAS CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA AND 
HONDURAS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NW ALONG THE 
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N115W. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS TURNING TO 
THE W AND SW SE OF THE TROUGH TO 10N BETWEEN 90W AND 120W. A 
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE WAS CENTERED NEAR 05N125W WITH 
THE CIRCULATION SPANNING BOTH SIDES OF THE EQUATOR. AN UPPER 
LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NW OF THIS FEATURE WAS AIDING IN 
SUSTAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH 
ALONG 129W. DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 108W AND 115W 
WAS DUE IN PART TO DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT IN THE VICINITY OF A 
SURFACE LOW NEAR 11N111W. 

SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS FORECAST BY ALL THE 
GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND BEGIN 
TO FLATTEN AND WEAKEN THIS STRONG RIDGE BY 48 TO 72 
HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT 
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK. 

CURRENTLY...SPRAWLING 1042 MB HIGH PRES WAS CENTERED UNDER THE 
UPPER RIDGE NEAR 40N140W WITH THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING WELL INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA TO NEAR 18N110W. THE 
STRONG PRES GRADIENT CREATED BETWEEN THIS LARGE HIGH AND LOWER 
PRESSURES ACROSS THE TROPICS WAS MAINTAINING FRESH NE TRADES OF 
20-25 KT GENERALLY N OF 11N AND W OF 125W...WITH N TO NE WINDS 
OF 30 KT INDICATED BY A 1520 UTC WINDSAT PASS ALONG 30N BETWEEN
128W AND 132W. NE WIND SWELL ACROSS THIS AREA WAS MIXING WITH 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL TO PRODUCE SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FT...AND 14 TO 
15 FT IN THE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO 
FORECAST TO WEAKEN...FLATTEN...AND SHIFT SLOWLY W DURING THE 
NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING THE GRADIENT INDUCED TRADEWINDS TO 
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY. 

NLY FLOW DRAINAGE FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS 
ABATED WITH OVERALL WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 
KT WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. NWLY FLOW OF 20 KT BLOWING THROUGH N 
PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS ALSO IN THE PROCESS OF 
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT AS WELL.  

A MONSOONAL CIRCULATION HAS AGAIN EVOLVED DURING THE PAST FEW 
DAYS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND FAR TROPICAL EPAC...WITH SW 
WINDS OF 20 KT OCCURRING N OF 03N AND E OF 86W THIS MORNING. 
THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN SHIFT 
E OF 82W BY 48 HOURS. THIS FLOW WAS FEEDING INTO AN AREA OF LOW 
PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WHICH HAS A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

$$
COBB